Predicting Winter

What do woolly worms, the fogs in August and persimmons all have in common? 

They are subjects of folklore tales used to predict the upcoming winter. 

While folklore tales differ as they are told, they are all rooted in a similar truth. 

Tales of woolly worms, also known as woolly bears, began in 1948 when Dr. Howard C. Curran, a curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History decided to study the catepillars and found that many of his test subjects had wide orange bands, according to Farmers’ Almanac. The bands correlated to a milder-than-average winter. 

Curran allegedly relayed his findings to a reporter, and his findings were published in the New York Herald Tribune. 

While many believe that an all-black woolly worm is a predictor for a harsh winter, the Farmers’ Almanac warns against the assumption because the color indicates that the worm is not the particular species of caterpillar that can be used to make predictions. 

If you see a woolly worm, here is what it can tell you: 

A woolly worm with a thin orange stripe indicates a snowy winter; if it has a wide orange stripe, it means that the winter will be mild. If it looks fuzzier than normal, it can be an indicator for a cold winter to come. 

While the tale behind fogs in August is unclear, it is considered by many to be a natural predictor of winter snows.

The folklore goes: for every fog in August, there will be a snowfall. 

A light fog may mean a light snow, but a heavy fog may indicate a heavier snow. 

According to the Farmers’ Almanac, the tale about fogs in August, like many weather prediction methods, is rooted in careful observations. 

One last method of predicting the winter to come may be more difficult to use locally. 

The shape inside persimmon seeds, called a cotyledon, has been used to forecast the upcoming weather. 

According to the Farmers’ Almanac, a fork shape may mean a mild winter, but a spoon shape may mean there will be a lot of snow. A knife shaped cotyledon can indicate a ‘cut like a knife,’ cold winter.

The trick to the persimmon’s folklore is the persimmon must be grown locally if it is to be used as a forecasting tool. 

Persimmons purchased at major chain or retail stores are often not grown locally. 

So many different tales exist to help predict the upcoming season. With fall officially here, my family and I have begun our official count of woolly worms (we are at three thin orange band worms) and reminiscing on the fogs of August. 

Let me know what other tales of winter predictors you grew up with as the season approaches!